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电力需求快速增长引发的碳排放问题日益严重,中国环境容量能否承载未来电力需求持续高速增长的压力备受关注。不同产业部门电力需求存在直接和间接的经济技术联系,基于东部11个省份2007年投入产出表,测算生产过程中某一部门技术进步引致的经济系统中所有产业部门电力需求的变化幅度,以此判断对电力需求影响较大的制造业部门,并利用投入产出价格模型计算各产业部门生产成本对电力价格增加的敏感度,识别出价格效应显著的各制造业部门。综合技术进步效应与价格效应后,比较各产业部门在电力需求上的节能减排潜力的结果显示:在经济发展水平相似的东部各省份,非金属矿物制品业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、化学工业、通用、专用设备制造业4个产业的技术进步效应、价格效应均能显著抑制电力需求增加,具有较大的节能减排潜力。但实践上通过价格效应实现降低碳排放的目标,还需考虑碳成本转化率、市场结构、替代品替代效应、产品需求弹性等因素的影响。
The problem of carbon emissions caused by the rapid growth of electricity demand is becoming more and more serious. Whether China’s environmental capacity can bear the pressure of sustained and rapid growth of electricity demand in the future is of concern. Based on the input-output tables for 2007 in 11 provinces of the eastern part of the country, direct and indirect economic and technological linkages have been found in the power demand of different industrial sectors. The change in the power demand of all industrial sectors in the economic system caused by the technological progress of a certain sector in the production process is estimated by This judgment determines the manufacturing sector that has a great influence on the demand for electricity and uses the input-output price model to calculate the sensitivity of the production costs of various industries to the increase of electricity prices and identifies manufacturing sectors with significant price effects. After synthesizing the technical progress effect and the price effect, the results of comparing the potential of energy saving and emission reduction of various industrial sectors on electricity demand show that in the eastern provinces with similar economic development levels, the non-metallic mineral products industry, the metal smelting and rolling processing industry, the chemical industry The technological progress and price effects of the four industries of industrial, general and special equipment manufacturing industries all significantly reduce the increase of electricity demand and have greater potential for energy conservation and emission reduction. However, in practice, the goal of reducing carbon emissions through price effect needs to consider the impact of such factors as carbon cost conversion rate, market structure, substitution effect of substitutes and product demand elasticity.