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本文通过建立时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR),研究了安倍政府时期量化宽松货币政策对日本民众生活、工业经济及对外贸易的时变动态影响,并与小泉政府时期的政策效果进行比较研究。研究表明:在对日本国内民众生活的影响方面,量化宽松的货币政策并没有使日本国内消费者物价指数(CPI)平稳增长,却起到了相反作用;在对日本国内产业活动指数的影响中,货币供应量增长对短期的日本经济发展是有利的;在对外贸易影响方面,量化宽松的货币政策短期内改善了日本在国际贸易上的逆差困境,但从长期来看,日本进出口贸易额均呈下降趋势;从与小泉政府时期量化宽松政策进行对比来看,安倍政府时期政策在刺激物价以及改善贸易逆差方面具有一定成效。
This paper studies the time-varying dynamic effects of quantitative easing monetary policy on Japan’s public life, industrial economy and foreign trade during the period of Abe’s government through the establishment of a time-varying parametric auto-regression model (TVP-VAR) compare research. Research shows that quantitative easing monetary policy did not make a steady increase in Japan’s domestic consumer price index (CPI) while exerting the opposite effect on the impact on Japan’s domestic public life. Of the impact on the index of domestic industrial activity in Japan, In terms of foreign trade, the quantitative easing monetary policy has improved Japan’s deficit position in international trade in the short run, but in the long run, the volume of Japan’s import and export trade Showing a declining trend. Compared with the quantitative easing policy during the Junichund administration, Abe government policies have some effects in stimulating prices and improving the trade deficit.