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为分析农业气象灾害对长江中下游地区双季早稻生产的影响,选取对双季早稻影响最大的冷害、热害作为致灾因子研究长江中下游地区双季早稻生产的危险性。以长江中下游地区双季早稻种植区48个农业气象站点1961—2012年的气象资料为基础,结合1981—2010年的农业气象资料,判别并量化冷害和热害,以发育期为研究尺度构建双季早稻冷害、热害综合危险性评价模型,研究长江中下游地区双季早稻生长季冷害、热害的发生情况、危险性大小以及各发育期危险性比重。结果表明:1冷害在分蘖期最强,热害在灌浆期最强;冷害变弱,热害变强;山地和丘陵地区多冷害少热害,平原地区多热害少冷害,但靠近大面积水域的平原地区在孕穗或开花期时常有冷害发生。2各发育期的危险度高值区与灾害值的高值区范围相似;从全生育期危险性来看,浙江是危险最高的地区,其次是湖北,而湖南和江西种植条件较好。3从各发育期危险比重来看,整个研究区在灌浆期危险比重最高,其次是分蘖期,然后是开花期,孕穗期最低。湖北主要在孕穗、灌浆期危险,湖南主要在分蘖、开花和灌浆期危险,江西主要在分蘖和灌浆期危险,浙江在开花和灌浆期危险。
In order to analyze the impact of agrometeorological disasters on the production of double-cropped early rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the cold-damaging and heat-damaging crops that have the greatest impact on the double-cropped early rice were selected as the hazard factors to study the production of double-cropped early rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Based on the meteorological data of 48 agricultural meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 48 agricultural weather stations in 1961-2012, the agricultural meteorological data from 1981 to 2010 were used to identify and quantify the chilling damage and heat damage. The developmental stage was used as the research scale Double cropping early rice chilling injury, thermal hazards comprehensive risk assessment model to study the growing season of double cropping rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River chilling injury, the incidence of heat damage, the size of the risk as well as the proportion of the risk of each developmental stage. The results showed as follows: 1 cold injury was the strongest in the tillering stage, and the heat damage was the strongest in the filling stage; the chilling injury was weakened and the heat damage was stronger; more chilling damage was less in the mountainous and hilly areas than in the plain areas, The plains of the waters are often chilling damage at the booting or flowering stage. 2 The high-risk areas in different developmental stages are similar to the high-value areas in disaster values. From the perspective of the risk of whole growth period, Zhejiang is the most dangerous area, followed by Hubei, while Hunan and Jiangxi have better planting conditions. From the perspective of the proportions of all developmental stages, the hazard ratio of the whole study area was the highest at the filling stage, followed by the tillering stage, then the flowering stage and the booting stage. Hubei is mainly booting at grain filling stage, while Hunan is mainly at tillering, flowering and filling stages. Jiangxi is mainly at tillering and filling stages, while Zhejiang is at risk during flowering and filling stages.