干旱期水安全风险评价与观控分析

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针对干旱期水安全风险评价惯用的风险指数(DRI)计算中指标权重难以确定的问题,采用改进的熵权方法确定了计算DRI各指标项的权重;通常指标权重对DRI的计算影响较大,为更深入地探讨干旱期水安全风险变化特性,根据泛系观控理论研究了干旱期水安全评价各方案的风险及其比较收益,并从信息熵的角度以约束信息量对各方案的风险进行了定性及定量分析,在海河流域水安全风险评价应用表明,该方法揭示了干旱期水安全风险的内在规定性,可应用于水安全风险评价中,所得结果可为海河流域干旱期水安全风险管理提供决策参考. In view of the difficulty of determining the weight of the index in the usual risk index (DRI) calculation during the drought risk assessment of water security, the weight of each index item of DRI is determined by the improved entropy weight method. Usually, the index weight has a great influence on the calculation of DRI, In order to further study the characteristics of water security risk changes during the drought period, the risk and comparative benefits of each program of water security assessment during drought period were studied according to the theory of pansystems. The risk of each program was analyzed with information entropy The qualitative and quantitative analysis of water risk in Haihe River Basin shows that this method reveals the intrinsic regularity of water safety risk in drought period and can be applied in water safety risk assessment. Risk management provides decision reference.
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