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塌方是山岭隧道出洞口经常发生的一类工程地质灾害,对其发生部位和时间预测一直是隧道工程技术难题之一。从应力传递概念出发,推导出隧道出洞口松散围岩失稳判据,得出塌方发生时进入松散围岩段的临界距离,可以对开挖过程中塌方发生可能性及其空间位置进行预测;并结合灰色理论和协同学理论,基于实测拱顶下沉数据,建立塌方时间预报的灰色-协同理论模型。然后,通过马鞍山隧道塌方事故对所推导的塌方位置判据和塌方时间预测模型进行有效验证,结果表明:计算出塌方的空间位置和发生时间与实际情况相吻合,说明推导的塌方空间位置判据和建立的隧道塌方时间的灰色–协同预测模型是合理可行的,且具有较高的预测精度和可靠性,可为其它隧道出洞口塌方预测提供参考和借鉴。
Landslide is a type of engineering geological disasters often occur at mountain tunnel exit. Prediction of its location and time has been one of the technical problems in tunnel engineering. Based on the concept of stress transfer, the failure criterion of loose surrounding rock mass at tunnel exit is deduced, and the critical distance to loose rock mass is obtained when the landslide occurs. The possibility of landslide and its spatial location can be predicted. Combined with gray theory and synergetic theory, based on the measured dome vault data, a gray-cooperative theoretical model of landslide time prediction is established. Then, the landslide location criterion and landslide time prediction model are validated through the collapse accident in Ma’anshan tunnel. The results show that the calculation of the spatial location and occurrence time of the landslide coincides with the actual situation, and the derived landslide space location criterion And the established gray-cooperative prediction model of tunnel collapse time is reasonable and feasible, and has a high prediction accuracy and reliability, which can be used as a reference for other tunnel collapse prediction.