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估计建筑项目的持续时间要求专家的经验。但专家的观点通常包含某种模糊性。前人已研究了模糊集合论在工程项目持续时间模糊性量化上的应用。然而,这些研究却没有谈到编制一个完整计划的过程。本文基于模糊集合论提出了一个新的网络计划方法,该方法包括:(a)模糊项目持续时间的表示;(b)计划参数的计算;(c)模糊结果的分析。作者举了两个例子来说明该方法的应用。并和蒙特卡罗模型进行了比较,结果表明用该方法得出的计划不仅适合解释在建筑工程中遇到不确定性,而且还能说明不确定性的特点,计算结果与用蒙特卡罗模型得到的一致,但计算相对简单,计算量较小,方法实用且易于计算机处理。
Estimating the duration of a building project requires expert experience. But expert opinions usually contain some ambiguity. Previous researchers have studied the application of fuzzy set theory in quantifying the fuzziness of engineering project duration. However, these studies did not address the process of preparing a complete plan. This paper proposes a new network planning method based on fuzzy set theory. The method includes: (a) the representation of fuzzy item duration; (b) the calculation of planning parameters; (c) the analysis of fuzzy results. The author cites two examples to illustrate the application of this method. Comparing with the Monte Carlo model, the results show that the plan obtained by this method is not only suitable for explaining the uncertainty encountered in the construction project, but also can explain the characteristics of the uncertainty, the calculation results and the Monte Carlo model. The results are the same, but the calculation is relatively simple, the amount of calculation is small, the method is practical and easy for computer processing.