论文部分内容阅读
目的建立肇庆市其它感染性腹泻监测预警体系,进行早期预警监测。方法利用2010-2012年肇庆市其它感染性腹泻监测数据,使用控制图法、历史限值法和指数加权移动平均法,对2013年其它感染性腹泻监测数据进行拟合,分析预警的效果。结果 2013年其它感染性腹泻疫情控制图法显示有两个流行时期,分别为第2~5周、第44~52周;历史限值法显示有两个时期高于历史同期水平,分别为第4~16周、第50~52周;指数加权移动平均法显示第3~4周以及第43~52周疫情有明显增加。结论综合运用控制图法、历史限值法和指数加权移动平均法三种预警方法能够比较准确、直观、可靠地对肇庆市其它感染性腹泻疫情流行情况进行早期预警。
Objective To establish other infectious diarrhea monitoring and early warning system in Zhaoqing and carry out early warning and monitoring. Methods Using other monitoring data of infectious diarrhea in Zhaoqing City from 2010 to 2012, the data of other infectious diarrhea monitoring data in 2013 were fitted and the effect of early warning was analyzed by using the control chart method, historical limit method and exponential weighted moving average method. Results The control charts for other infectious diarrhea outbreaks in 2013 showed two epidemic periods, ranging from Weeks 2 to 5 and Weeks 44 to 52. The historical limit value method showed that there were two periods above the historical level, namely, From 4 to 16 weeks and from 50 to 52 weeks, the exponential weighted moving average method showed that there was a significant increase in the outbreaks from the 3rd to 4th weeks and the 43th to 52th weeks. Conclusion The three early-warning methods of control chart, historical limit test and exponential weighted moving average method can predict the epidemic situation of other infectious diarrhea in Zhaoqing more accurately, intuitively and reliably.