论文部分内容阅读
自2012年12月至2013年2月物价明显上行,CPI同比涨幅扩大,PPI环比连续上涨,房价和股价总体上升。物价变动情况与经济温和回升的趋势基本一致,2012年下半年以来稳中趋松的货币环境也为物价回升提供了支撑。天气和节假日等季节性因素加大了物价的波动性,导致CPI涨幅扩大。国内生产经营回暖和企业回补库存动力增强拉动PPI环比连续上涨。受近期美元指数走高影响,国际大宗商品价格总体下行,对国内物价影响不大。从物价周期性变化规律看,当前CPI已由底部进人上行期。尽管受食品价格回落影响,短期内CPI涨幅会有所回调,但年内上升趋势已基本形成。值得注意的是,当前推动物价上涨的因素增多,出口反弹较快,资本流入较多,货币信贷扩张的压力较大,并且发达经济体
From December 2012 to February 2013, prices rose significantly, CPI increased year-on-year, and PPI continued to increase sequentially. Prices and stock prices rose overall. The changes in prices are basically in line with the mild upward trend in the economy. The stable monetary environment since the second half of 2012 also provided support for the rebound in prices. Seasonal factors such as weather and holidays have increased the volatility of prices, leading to an increase in CPI gains. The rebound in domestic production and business operations and the increase in corporate reserve fund inventory led to a continuous increase in the PPI. Affected by the recent rise in the US dollar index, international bulk commodity prices have generally declined, with little impact on domestic prices. Judging from the cyclical pattern of price changes, the current CPI has entered the upward period from the bottom. Despite the impact of a drop in food prices, CPI inflation will be corrected in the short term, but the upward trend has basically taken shape during the year. It is worth noting that the factors that currently drive up prices have increased, exports have rebounded rapidly, capital inflows have increased, and pressures on money and credit expansion have increased.