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房地产行业在国民经济中有着举足轻重的地位,本文建立两个模型进行定量分析。针对房地产行业态势分析,本文根据房地产行业周期波动和房价收入比之间变化趋势基本吻合的原理,建立了房价收入比的混合模型(灰色系统GM(1,1)—马尔科夫链模型),并对行业态势进行了预测;本文应用灰色系统理论中灰色关联度的概念,对国民经济中主要的13个行业与房地产行业进行了带动效应的分析。
The real estate industry plays a decisive role in the national economy. This paper establishes two models for quantitative analysis. According to the trend analysis of the real estate industry, based on the principle that the fluctuation of the real estate industry is in line with the change trend of the house price to income ratio, a mixed model of house price income ratio (gray system GM (1,1) - Markov chain model) And forecast the trend of the industry. In this paper, the concept of gray relational degree in gray system theory is applied to analyze the driving effect of the 13 major industries and the real estate industry in the national economy.