任何一门学科要想成为科学,就必须能提出被实践检验的预测。但由于城市的生命周期远超人类,使得城市规划很难通过实证,检验其判断的对错。所幸的是,过去三十年中国进入了人类历史上从未有过的高速城市化进程。大量城市从无到有,在一代人时间内达到了以往需要几代人才能达到的规模。中国的城市变成了一个巨大的实验室,使得城市规划的理论和方法变得可以“被检验”了。写信的背景15年前,当时我还在中国城市规划设计研究院,曾经给时 Any subject that wants to become a science must be able to come up with proven predictions. However, urban life cycle far exceeds humanity, making it difficult for urban planning to pass empirical evidence to test its right or wrong. Fortunately, China has entered a process of rapid urbanization that has never been possible in human history in the past three decades. A large number of cities have grown from nothing to the scale that in the past has reached several generations before. China’s city has become a huge laboratory, making the theory and method of urban planning become “tested.” Writing background 15 years ago, when I was still China Institute of Urban Planning and Design, once gave