论文部分内容阅读
判断2012年世界经济前景须从中长期视野切入。中长期世界经济缺乏“前危机期”持续增长的基础动因,即全球性体制创新与技术突破的交替发生,将不会有持续增长。但世界经济也不会有大的衰退发生,原因在于存在一些稳定因素,其中空间经济学视野的“核心经济”互动与非正式的全球经济治理架构发挥着关键的稳定作用。2012年世界经济走势关键看欧盟和美国之间增长动因与震荡因子的平衡,美国经济的强劲反弹有望带动世界经济短期冲高。2012年中国对外经济战略应立足于国内经济与产业长远的转型升级目标提出,外贸政策应将加大进口力度,汇率政策应变被动升值为主动升值,引进外资与“走出去”政策应取中性立场。
Judging that the world economic outlook for 2012 should be cut from the mid-to-long-term perspective. Long-term lack of the world economy, “the former crisis ” continued growth of the underlying motivation, that global institutional innovation and technological breakthroughs alternating, there will be no sustained growth. However, there will be no major recession in the world economy due to the existence of some stabilizing factors. Among them, the “core economy” interaction in the field of spatial economics and the informal global economic governance structure play a key stabilizing role. The key to the trend of the world economy in 2012 is the balance between the growth motivation and the shock factor between the EU and the United States. The strong rebound in the U.S. economy is expected to lead to a short-term global economic boom. In 2012, China’s foreign economic strategy should be based on the goal of long-term transformation and upgrading of its domestic economy and industry. Its foreign trade policy should increase its import and take the initiative to appreciate the exchange rate policy. The policy of introducing foreign capital and “going out” should be adopted Neutral position.