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为了使出行成本更加符合出行者的认知规律,运用结构方程建模方法模拟出行成本,个体特征及出行决策之间的影响关系.引入敏感系数调整服务属性在出行成本中的贡献率,利用出行意愿调查数据对敏感系数进行标定.考虑出行者对抵达时刻的选择偏好,假设行程时间服从正态分布条件下,对最佳出发时刻及期望出行成本进行寻优求解,结果表明它取决于期望到达时刻,行程时间的期望值及方差,出行者对早到损失及晚到延误损失时间成本的相对大小.研究成果可为制定个性化及最优化出行决策方案提供依据.
In order to make the travel cost more in line with the traveler’s cognitive rules, the structural equation modeling method is used to simulate the impact of the travel cost, individual characteristics and travel decisions.Considering the sensitivity coefficient to adjust the contribution rate of service attributes in travel costs, Willingness survey data to calibrate the sensitivity coefficient.Considering the preference of the traveler for the arrival time, assuming that the travel time obeys the normal distribution, the optimal departure time and the expected travel cost are solved optimally, and the result shows that it depends on the expected arrival The expected value and variance of travel time, the relative size of traveler’s early loss and late delay to loss cost.The research results can provide the basis for formulating personalized and optimized travel decision-making plan.