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为实现碳卫星载荷在轨温度的准确预测,对其试验状态瞬态热分析模型的修正进行研究。先比较热分析计算结果与热平衡试验结果,求出两者对应温度监控点的温差;再利用蒙特卡洛法对二氧化碳探测仪热分析模型参数进行灵敏性分类,将模型参数分为整体灵敏、局部灵敏与不灵敏参数。然后根据热平衡试验数据,用拉丁超立方和单纯形法的混合法对模型各个参数进行分层修正,得到满足目标函数各个灵敏性参数的最优值。最后将参数最优值代入热分析模型计算验证该修正方法正确性,并进行残差分析。结果显示修正后各温度监控点热分析计算与热试验温差δa小于±0.5℃,残差修正率θ高于80%,修正后多数温差比修正前减少了一个数量级。结果表明修正取得的效果明显,修正方法合理可行。
In order to accurately predict the on-orbit temperature of carbon satellite loads, the correction of the transient thermal analysis model in the experimental state was studied. First, the results of thermal analysis and heat balance test were compared to find the temperature difference between the two corresponding to the temperature monitoring points. The Monte-Carlo method was used to classify the parameters of the thermal analysis model of carbon dioxide detector. The model parameters were divided into overall sensitive and local Sensitive and insensitive parameters. Then, according to the data of thermal equilibrium test, the parameters of the model are stratified by the hybrid method of hypercube and simplex method, and the optimal value of each sensitivity parameter of the objective function is obtained. Finally, the optimal parameters were substituted into the thermal analysis model to verify the correctness of the correction method, and the residual analysis. The results show that after the correction, the temperature difference δa between the thermal analysis calculation and the thermal test is less than ± 0.5 ℃ and the residual correction rate θ is higher than 80%. Most of the corrected temperature differences are reduced by one order of magnitude compared with those before the correction. The result shows that the effect of correction is obvious and the correction method is reasonable and feasible.