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本文创立一个新的分析体系并用此来解释中国经济飞速增长的源泉,传统的索洛方法只包括投入与技术进步两方面内容。我们创新地引进结构调整作为第三个增长的源泉。实证研究结果表明,结构调整可以通过以下方式来促进经济增长,即通过将资源从低效率的部门转移到高效率的部门,尤其是将农村剩余劳动力转移到乡镇企业生产上。我们还发现资本投资在对农业生产及乡镇企业的回报率比在城市要高许多,表明在农村地区缺乏投资。另一方由于有大量的剩余劳动力,农村的劳动生产率还是很低。因此,进一步发展生产力,促进跨部门跨地区的劳动力流动,对提高整个经济效率将会有决定性作用。
This article establishes a new analysis system and uses it to explain the source of China’s rapid economic growth. The traditional Solow method includes only two aspects of investment and technological progress. We introduce structural adjustment as the third source of growth. Empirical findings suggest that structural adjustment can promote economic growth by shifting resources from an inefficient sector to an efficient sector, with a particular emphasis on the transfer of rural surplus labor to the production of TVEs. We have also found that the rate of return on capital investment in agricultural production and township and village enterprises is much higher than in cities, indicating a lack of investment in rural areas. On the other hand, due to the large surplus labor force, the labor productivity in rural areas is still very low. Therefore, further development of productive forces and the promotion of cross-sectoral labor mobility will be decisive for improving the overall economic efficiency.