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沈阳是全国最大的重工业城市,随着工业的发展,恶性肿瘤的死亡数不断上升。本文应用数学模式,对2002年沈阳市总人口数、年龄别、人口数和各种恶性肿瘤死亡数进行了预测。本文以沈阳市区1987年的人口资料和死因统计资料为基础数据。假设沈阳市今后的出生率、人口自然增长率基本上保持此水平不变;死亡率保持在1987年水平;同时假定人口无迁移变动,基本上保持稳定。 2002年恶性肿瘤死亡数预测结果为:男性全癌死亡数为5 822人,鼻咽癌30人、食管癌507人、胃癌1 140人、结直肠癌227人、肝癌871人、乳腺癌2人、白血病309人、肺癌1 805人、其它920人。女性全癌死亡数为
Shenyang is the largest heavy industrial city in the country. With the development of industry, the number of deaths from malignant tumors continues to rise. This paper uses a mathematical model to predict the total population, age, population, and deaths of various malignant tumors in Shenyang City in 2002. This paper uses the population data and cause statistics of Shenyang City in 1987 as the basic data. Assume that the future birth rate and natural population growth rate of Shenyang will basically remain unchanged at this level; the mortality rate will remain at the level of 1987; at the same time, the population will remain basically stable, assuming no migration. The predicted number of malignant tumor deaths in 2002 was: 5,822 cancer deaths for men, 30 nasopharyngeal cancers, 507 esophageal cancers, 1,140 gastric cancers, 227 colorectal cancers, 871 liver cancers, and 2 breast cancers. There were 309 leukemia patients, 1,805 lung cancer patients, and 920 other people. Female cancer deaths are