Crustal Stress Evolution over the Past 700 Years in North China and Earthquake Occurrence

来源 :Earthquake Research in China | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:woshilidefu
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
Fault interaction and earthquake occurrence have attracted much attention in seismological community during recent years. Many studies have shown that the rupture of one fault could encourage or discourage earthquake nucleation on a neighboring fault, depending on the relative geometry of the two faults and the earthquake rupture mechanisms. In this paper, we simulate the evolutionary process of cumulative Coulomb failure stress change (CCFSC) in North China since 1303, manifested by secular tectonic stress loading and occurrence of large earthquakes. Secular tectonic stress loading is averaged from crustal strain rates derived from GPS. Fault rupture parameters of historical earthquakes are estimated as follows: the earthquake rupture length and the amount of slip are derived based on their statistical relationships with the earthquake intensity distribution and magnitude, calibrated using parameters of instrumentally measured contemporary earthquakes. The earthquake rake angle is derived based on geologically determined fault orientational parameters and seismically estimated orientation of regional tectonic stresses. Assuming a layered visco-elastic medium, we calculate stress evolution resulting from secular tectonic loading and coseismic and postseismic deformation. On the eve of each large earthquake, the accumulated stress field is projected to the fault surface of that earthquake and the CCFSC is evaluated to assess the triggering effect of CCFSC. Forty-nine earthquakes with M≥6.5 have occurred in North China since 1303. Statistics shows that 39 out of the 48 subsequent events were triggered by positive CCFSC, yielding a triggering rate of 81.3%. If we use the accumulative stress field to evaluate the CCFSC for the M≥5.0 earthquakes that occurred in North China since 1303, we find that 75.5% of those events were triggered. The triggering rate for the M≥5.0 earthquakes after the 1976 Ninghe earthquake is up to 82.1%. The triggering rates can be higher if corrections are made for some aftershocks which were wrongly identified as occurring in stress shadow zones because of errors in parameter estimates of historical earthquakes. Our study shows a very high correlation between positive CCFSC and earthquake occurrences. Relatively high CCFSC in North China at present is concentrated around the Bohai Sea, the west segment of the Northern Qinling fault, the western end of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea seismic zone, and the Taiyuan basin, Shanxi graben, suggesting relatively higher earthquake potential in these areas. Fault interaction and earthquake occurrence have many pleae in seismological community during recent years. Many studies have shown that the rupture of one fault could encourage or discourage earthquake nucleation on a neighboring fault, depending on the relative geometry of the two faults and the earthquake rupture mechanisms. In this paper, we simulate the evolutionary process of cumulative Coulomb failure stress change (CCFSC) in North China since 1303, manifested by secular tectonic stress loading and occurrence of large earthquakes. Secular tectonic stress loading is averaged from crustal strain rates derived from GPS. Fault rupture parameters of historical earthquakes are estimated as follows: the earthquake rupture length and the amount of slip are derived based on their statistical relationships with the earthquake intensity distribution and magnitude, calibrated using parameters of instrumentally measured contemporary earthquakes. The earthquake rake angle is der ived based on geologically determined fault orientational parameters and seismically estimated orientation of regional tectonic stresses. Assuming a layered visco-elastic medium, we calculate stress evolution evolution from secular tectonic loading and coseismic and postseismic deformation. stress field is projected to the fault surface of that earthquake and the CCFSC is evaluated to trigger the effect of the CCFSC. Forty-nine earthquakes with M ≧ 6.5 have occurred in North China since 1303. Statistics shows that 39 out of the 48 subsequent events were triggered by positive CCFSC, yielding a triggering rate of 81.3%. If we use the accumulative stress field to evaluate the CCFSC for the M≥5.0 earthquakes that occurred in North China since 1303, we find that 75.5% of those events were triggered. The triggering rate for the M≥5.0 earthquakes after the 1976 Ninghe earthquake is up to 82.1%. The triggering rates can be higher i f corrections are made for some aftershocks which were wrongly identified as occurring in stress shadow zones because of errors in parameter estimates of historical earthquakes. Our study shows a very high correlation between positive CCFSC and earthquake occurrences. Relatively high CCFSC in North China at present is concentrated around the Bohai Sea, the west segment of the Northern Qinling fault, the western end of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea seismic zone, and the Taiyuan basin, Shanxi graben, Highway Comparative more higher earthquake potential in these areas.
其他文献
@吴文桂@潘安君@李其军¥北京市水利科学研究所北京市水利科学研究所作为北京市水利局下属的科研、开发和技术服务机构,必须进入全市水利行业发展的主战场,切实做好“四项服务”工作
Both sputtering conditions and crystallizing temperatures have great influence on the microstructures and phase transformation characteristics for Ti 51 Ni
期刊
胰母细胞瘤(pancreatoblastoma,PB)是一罕见的胰腺肿瘤,截至2003年6月经MEDLINE检索国内外文献共报道104例.最近我们收治一例,对其临床特点和病理特性进行了研究.现报告如下。
提到中国大陆的房地产专业网站,就不能绕过搜房网和莫天全。几乎是与席卷中国的 IT 热潮同步,属于海归派的莫天全在美国国际数据集团(IDG)风险投资资金的支持下,于1999年在
在安庆市地税系统内,人们传颂着一位铁骨丹心、助人为乐的雷锋式的好税干——汪俊宏同志。 汪俊宏,1968年出生,大专文化程度,1986年参加工作,2002年3月入党。自参加工作以来
与哈木提很熟,相见所及都是芭蕾的话题。从2000年第二次走进上海芭蕾舞团任团长,哈木提开始实现上海芭蕾走向世界的梦想。“我团围绕着实现中国第一、亚洲第一、世界一流远大
三九企业集团总裁赵新先既是位著名的药学教授、新时期典型的知识型企业家,又是曾经多次受到党中央、国务院隆重表彰的全国劳动模范。因此,称赵新先总裁为“知识型劳模”,是
(一) 长江,中国第一大河,千百年来,既泽及华夏,又危及华夏。每至汛期,荆江一带人民,头枕悬河,惶惶不安。 据历史记载,从公元前185年到公元1991年的2196年中,长江中下游共发
The conventional mass loss tests and the electrochemical techniques were used to study the inhibition action of LiOH and Na 2MoO 4 either individually or in
一20世纪90年代,莎士比亚戏剧的电影改编迎来一个新的高峰,相关专题研究也伴随这股潮流同时兴起。这一时期的新的著作、成果凭借它们具有突破性的问题意识、理论方法和视点思