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本文基于2000年1月至2015年12月生猪价格与育肥猪配合饲料价格的月度数据,运用非对称误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数等对猪肉与饲料市场间的价格传导非对称效应进行了研究。结果表明:生猪与饲料价格之间存在长期均衡关系;短期内,生猪与饲料价格协整系统具有反向修正机制,价格波动的影响存在滞后效应,且价格传导具有显著的非对称效应;脉冲响应函数的结果进一步验证了生猪与饲料价格的传导特征。针对价格的传导机制与特征,本文提出了相应的政策建议,对政府制定相关市场调控政策、提升消费者福利水平具有重要的意义。
Based on the monthly data of hog prices and fattening pig compound feed prices from January 2000 to December 2015, this paper studied the asymmetric effects of price transmission between pork and feed markets using asymmetric error correction model and impulse response function. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the live pigs and the feed prices. In the short term, the co-integration system of live pigs and feed prices has a reverse correction mechanism, the lagged effects of the price fluctuations and the significant asymmetric effects of price transmission. The result of the function further verifies the conduction characteristics of live pigs and feed prices. In view of the conduction mechanism and characteristics of price, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions, which is of great significance to the government to formulate the relevant market regulation and control policies and enhance the level of consumer welfare.