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文章采用投入产出法对中国21个产业部门隐含碳排放量进行了测算,测算结果显示不同产业部门的隐含碳排放强度存在较大差异,碳排放呈现产业高度集中的特点。但整体来看,如果仅以产业部门直接碳排放强度估算我国产业碳排放强度,实际上会在很大程度上低估我国产业部门实际碳排放水平。中国的经济增长是典型的出口导向型模式,结合贸易结构的研究发现:位居中美产品贸易额前20位的产品与我国隐含碳排放量较大的产业部门产品具有较强的匹配性。这意味着,一旦欧美等国对我国征收碳关税,将大幅度提高我国产品出口市场的关税水平,从而对中国经济产生较为严重的影响。
The article adopts input-output method to estimate the carbon emissions of China’s 21 industrial sectors. The calculation results show that there is a big difference in the intensity of implicit carbon emissions in different industrial sectors, and carbon emissions are highly concentrated in the industry. However, as a whole, if we only use the carbon intensity of industrial sectors to estimate the intensity of China’s industrial carbon emissions, we will in fact underestimate the actual level of carbon emissions in China’s industrial sector. China’s economic growth is a typical export-oriented model. Combining with the trade structure research, it has been found that the top 20 products ranked in Sino-U.S. product trade have a strong match with China’s implied industrial products with large carbon emissions. . This means that once Europe, the United States, and other countries impose carbon tariffs on China, they will greatly increase the tariff levels of China’s product export markets, which will have a more serious impact on the Chinese economy.