与世界经济减速有所不同的是中国经济在减速,我们称之为新常态,世界经济称之为新平庸。是在一个发展阶段变化的情况下,潜在的增长率在下降。从2011年开始,劳动年龄人口就在减少,接下来明年开始中国的经济活动人口也开始减少。也就意味着劳动力在短缺,以及由此带来一系列的现象。人力资本、生产力的提高速度和资本的回报率都导致潜在增长率的下降。我们做了一个模 What is different from the deceleration of the world economy is that China’s economy is decelerating. We call it the new normal and the world economy calls it a new mediocre. The potential growth rate is declining at a time of developmental stage change. Beginning in 2011, the working-age population is on the decline. Next year, China’s economically active population will also start to decline. This means a shortage of workforce and a series of phenomena. Human capital, the rate of productivity growth and the return on capital both lead to a drop in the potential growth rate. We made a model