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一、江苏经济发展对电力和电煤的需求根据省政府经济研究中心预测,到2000年江苏经济发展目标为工农业总产值3900亿元。建立经济增长量的线性预测模型:Y_(t+1)=Y~1+△Y_t (1)由1970～1984年江苏工农业总产值的历史数据,得一次差分序列的回归模型为:△Y_t=2.516+7.577t (2)相关系数R=0.79。将式(2)代入式(1)即可求得未来的经济预测值(见表1)。确定各阶段预计工农业总产值后,采用下述三种预测电力需求的方法:(1)计量经济预测模型。借鉴国际会议上土耳其电力部门发表的预测模型,剔除了电力
I. Demand for electricity and coal for economic development in Jiangsu According to the forecast of the provincial government’s economic research center, by the year 2000, the economic development target of Jiangsu will be 390 billion yuan. Establish a linear prediction model of economic growth: Y_(t+1)=Y~1+ΔY_t (1) From the historical data of Jiangsu’s industrial and agricultural output value from 1970 to 1984, the regression model for the first difference sequence is: △Y_t =2.516+7.577t (2) Correlation coefficient R=0.79. Substituting equation (2) into equation (1) can yield future economic forecasts (see Table 1). After determining the expected industrial and agricultural output value of each stage, the following three methods for forecasting electricity demand are adopted: (1) Econometric forecasting model. Drawing on the prediction model published by the Turkish electricity sector at the international conference, eliminating electricity