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既有结构当前的材料强度是客观上完全确定但具有主观不确定性的未确知量。目前的区间估计法为概率推断方法,并不完全适用于对既有结构当前现实的材料强度的推断。该文针对既有结构的特点,分析了目前区间估计法的缺陷,提出了既有结构当前材料强度的信度推断方法。该法具有良好的理论基础,不仅考虑了测试构件与未测试构件之间的差别,而且能够合理反映测量不确定性、空间不确定性对推断结果的影响,推断结果与一般的工程判断一致,实例分析的结果亦具体说明了这一点。该文的方法还可推广到对既有结构当前恒荷载的推断。
The current material strength of the existing structure is an unidentified quantity that is objectively completely determined but subjectively uncertain. The current interval estimation method is a probabilistic inference method that is not entirely applicable to the inference of the material strength of existing realities of existing structures. According to the characteristics of the existing structure, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the current interval estimation method and puts forward the reliability inference method of the current material strength of the existing structure. The method has a good theoretical foundation, not only considering the difference between test components and untested components, but also reasonably reflecting the influence of measurement uncertainty and spatial uncertainty on the inference results. The inference results are consistent with the general engineering judgment, The result of the example analysis also illustrates this point. The method of this paper can also be generalized to infer the current constant load of existing structures.