本文利用青浦县朱家角乡青紫泥类型湖积草甸土长期定位试验的数据,运用时间序列分析方法,建立了有机肥预测模型。结果表明,预测值与实际值较为一致。如要维持原来的有机质含量3.165％,必须当年补充有机质170.5kg/亩,折算成猪塮(厩肥)约要年投入3668kg/亩,每季约为1800kg/亩。在有机肥施用数量化方面作了新的尝试。 In this paper, we use the data of long-term positioning experiment of lagoon-type meadow alluvial soil in Zhujiajiao Township, Qingpu County, and establish the forecast model of organic fertilizer using time series analysis method. The results show that the predicted value is consistent with the actual value. In order to maintain the original organic matter content of 3.165%, 170.5kg / mu of organic matter must be replenished in that year, and converted into pigskin (manure) about 3668kg / mu per year, about 1800kg / mu per quarter. In the organic fertilizer to quantify a new attempt.