2004年上半年粮食价格涨势强劲;受夏粮和早稻增产以及季节性因素的影响,自5月份以来,粮食价格出现回落态势;但受多种因素影响,下半年粮食价格将会呈现小幅上涨趋势;全年粮食产量将呈现恢复性上涨,产需缺口缩小。粮食价格上涨属于恢复性上涨,总体上利大于弊,不需要进行过多干预。今后政策重点仍应以提高粮食产量为主,关键是巩固和完善当前已经出台的各项政策措施,构建国家扶持粮食生产的长效机制。 Food prices rose strongly in the first half of 2004. Due to the increased yields of summer grain and early rice and seasonal factors, food prices have been on a downward trend since May. However, due to various factors, food prices will show a slight upward trend in the second half of the year ; Annual grain output will show a resumption of growth, narrowing the gap between production and demand. The rise in food prices is a recovery and increase, which generally outweighs the disadvantages and does not require excessive intervention. In the future, the focus of the policy should still focus on improving grain output. The key is to consolidate and improve various policies and measures that have been promulgated so far and establish a long-term mechanism that the state supports food production.