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农业是受气候变化影响的主要敏感行业之一,气候变暖带来的气温升高以及降水格局的改变对农作物生产有利有弊。论文基于黑龙江海伦地区1978—2004年生长季≥10℃有效积温、降水量和统计年鉴中的大豆产量数据,以积温和降水在季节上的匹配程度作为判断水热耦合的指标,采用气候波动指数、减产风险指数作为大豆产量受气候波动影响程度的指标,研究了在生长季降水量下降和≥10℃有效积温增加的趋势下水热耦合的年际和年内变化特征及其对大豆产量的影响,并分析了偏干旱、正常和湿润年份大豆产量受气候波动影响的特征和减产风险性。结果表明,大豆气候波动指数和产量减产风险指数从大到小均依次为偏干旱年、偏湿润年和正常年,说明海伦地区受气候暖干化影响较大。
Agriculture is one of the major sensitive industries affected by climate change. The warming caused by climate warming and the change in precipitation pattern have both advantages and disadvantages to crop production. Based on the effective accumulated temperature (≥10 ℃) and the data of soybean production in the Heilongjiang Helena region during 1978-2004 growing season ≥10 ℃, the matching degree of accumulated temperature and precipitation in the seasons was taken as the index to judge the water-heat coupling. The climate variability index , Yield risk index as an index of soybean yield affected by climate fluctuations, we studied the interannual and annual variation characteristics of water and heat coupling and its effect on soybean yield under the condition of the decrease of precipitation in growing season and the increase of effective accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃, And analyzed the characteristics of drought-affected, normal and wet years soybean yield by the impact of climate fluctuations and the risk of yield reduction. The results showed that the risk index of soybean climate and the yield-decreasing risk index of descending order of drought were partial dry year, partial wetting year and normal year, indicating that Helen area is greatly affected by climate warming and drying.