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本文在一系列假定条件下分析了中央社保基金投资资本市场对经济增长和包括储蓄、收入分配、消费、价格等在内的宏观经济条件的影响。本文认为,总的来说中央社保基金投资包括股市在内的资本市场对经济增长的影响具有很大的不确定性,其影响主要取决于其他诸多相关因素,并在很大程度上取决于心理预期和政策工具的选择。换言之,在其他条件不变的情况下其影响是很有限的,或者说主要呈中性。
Based on a series of assumptions, this paper analyzes the impact of the investment fund market of the Central Social Security Fund on the macroeconomic conditions of economic growth and including savings, income distribution, consumption, prices and so on. This paper argues that, in general, the impact of capital investment by the Central Social Security Fund on the economic growth, including the stock market, is highly uncertain. The impact depends mainly on many other relevant factors and depends largely on the psychology Expectations and choice of policy tools. In other words, the impact is very limited, or mostly neutral, with all other conditions remaining constant.