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使用国内某商业银行2012年的林农贷款数据,对影响林农贷款申请批准通过概率和违约概率的因素进行研究。发现,提供林权抵押的贷款具有较低的违约概率,而利率较高的贷款申请获得批准的概率显著较高,但这些贷款出现违约的概率也显著更高,表明了逆向选择现象的存在。这一发现表明商业银行不应简单地追求高定价,而是应采取各种手段,积极消除贷款中的信息不对称问题,才能够更为有效地促进林农金融的发展。
The data of forest farmers in 2012 from a commercial bank in China are used to study the factors influencing the application of loan approval by forest farmers for probabilities of probability and probability of default. It was found that loans with forest tenure had a lower probability of default, while those with higher interest rates had significantly higher probabilities of approving loans, but the probability of default on these loans was significantly higher, indicating the existence of adverse selection. This finding shows that commercial banks should not simply pursue high pricing. Instead, they should adopt various measures to actively eliminate the information asymmetry in loans so that they can promote the development of forest finance more effectively.