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基于一个资本积累与创新相互作用的内生增长模型,本文以中国1978～2009年的经济为样本,通过参数化和数值模拟估算了中国税收政策的经济增长效应与社会福利损失。研究发现,不同税种对应的经济增长效应与社会福利损失差别较大。其中,征收资本所得税的经济增长效应与社会福利损失最大;征收劳动所得税、企业所得税以及消费税的经济增长效应较小,而相应的社会福利损失却较大。在此基础上,本文进一步估算了中国总体税负的经济增长效应与社会福利损失。研究发现,在基准经济参数环境下,若政府收入占GDP的比例从25%提高至35%,经济增长率将降低2.55%,对应的社会福利损失相当于减少36.24%的消费;若政府收入占GDP的比例从25%减少至15%,经济增长率将上升2.71%,对应的社会福利改善相当于增加51.78%的消费。
Based on an endogenous growth model of the interaction between capital accumulation and innovation, this paper estimates the economic growth effect and social welfare loss of China’s taxation policy through the parameterization and numerical simulation using the Chinese economy from 1978 to 2009 as a sample. The study found that the effect of economic growth corresponding to different tax types and social welfare losses vary greatly. Among them, the capital gains tax levied on the economic growth and social welfare losses the largest loss of labor income tax, corporate income tax and consumption tax effect of economic growth is small, while the corresponding social welfare losses are greater. On this basis, this paper further estimates the economic growth effect of China’s overall tax burden and the loss of social welfare. The study finds that under the environment of benchmark economic parameters, if the ratio of government revenue to GDP increases from 25% to 35%, the economic growth rate will decrease by 2.55% and the corresponding social welfare loss will decrease by 36.24%; if the government revenue accounts for The proportion of GDP decreased from 25% to 15%, the economic growth rate will rise 2.71%, corresponding to the improvement of social welfare equivalent to an increase of 51.78% of the consumption.