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在我国外贸出口面临新的形势、外贸体制政策酝酿新的举措、引进外资规模迅速扩大这一背景下,北京经济学总会与对外经济贸易大学于6月29日在对外经济贸易大学联合举办了“’95外贸与外资发展研讨会”。 参加这次会议的著名专家学者近40人,重点切磋的课题有:外贸体制改革;外贸政策调控;1995年我国出口形势分析;世界贸易组织与中国复关问题;中美贸易纠纷;引进外资与国民经济宏观调控等。 在谈及当前一些热点与敏感的问题时,一些专家认为:1995年上半年出口迅速增长,其原因同企业争取提前退税有关,也有人认为出口所以出现快速增长,是因为企业手中资金紧缺,扩大出口可取得资金的来源。专家们普遍认为,下半年出口预计将会遇到一些困难,其主要原因是:1.汇率并轨激励机制的消失;2.出口物价上涨,使出口换汇成本大幅度提高;3.资金不到位;4.国家退税不到位。尽管下半年出口会遇到困难,但仍有一些有利因素,如:1.国际与国内的经济情况良好;2.出口产品可望在深层次发展。有专家估计,1995年我国出口将增长15％左右,但要取决于以下因素:人民币是否继续升值和国家退税的到位程度。
Under the background that China’s foreign trade exports are facing a new situation, foreign trade system policies brewing new initiatives, and the scale of foreign investment introduction is rapidly expanding, Beijing Economics General Conference and the University of International Business and Economics were jointly organized on June 29 at the University of International Business and Economics. “’95 Seminar on the Development of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment.” Nearly 40 experts and scholars participated in the conference. The key topics discussed included: foreign trade system reform; foreign trade policy control; analysis of China’s export situation in 1995; WTO and China’s customs clearance issues; Sino-US trade disputes; National economy macro-control. When talking about some current hot and sensitive issues, some experts believe that the rapid growth of exports in the first half of 1995 was related to the early tax rebates for enterprises, and some people thought that the rapid growth of exports was due to the shortage of funds in the hands of enterprises and the expansion Exports can be sources of funds. Experts generally believe that exports are expected to encounter some difficulties in the second half of the year. The main reasons are: 1. The exchange rate incentive mechanism disappears; 2. The rise in export prices raises the cost of export exchanges; 3. The funds are not in place 4. The state tax refund is not in place. Although exports will encounter difficulties in the second half of the year, there are still some favorable factors, such as: 1. International and domestic economic conditions are good; 2. Export products are expected to develop at a deep level. Some experts estimate that China’s exports will increase by about 15% in 1995, but it will depend on the following factors: whether the renminbi continues to appreciate and the degree of national tax rebates is in place.