本文认为由于通缩风险加剧显示内需低迷,加上宏观经济下行,铜的需求自然会减少,宽松的货币政策也会导致铜价有下行空间。从行业角度来看,铜已经有供需缺口,转变为了供应过剩,从而使得库存上升,导致铜价承压。然而由于受厄尔尼诺极端气候的影响,铜产量可能会因此下降,铜价有望因此提振。 This article argues that due to the deepening deflation risk shows sluggish domestic demand, coupled with the macroeconomic downturn, the demand for copper will naturally be reduced, loose monetary policy will lead to copper prices have downside. From an industry perspective, there is already a gap between supply and demand of copper and the transition to oversupply, which leads to rising inventories and pressure on copper prices. However, copper production may decline as a result of extreme El Niño weather and copper prices are expected to boost.