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我国是以煤炭为主要能源的国家,煤炭在我国的能源结构中占有不可替代的重要地位。正确合理的对能源消费进行预测不仅可以指导资源配置与规划,还可以为将来的经济政策选择提供有价值的参考。基于对我国煤炭供需的基本分析,本文将运用格兰杰因果关系检验描述煤炭消费需求和经济增长之间的内在关系,利用协整理论和误差修正模型建立中国煤炭消费的结构需求模型,对中国经济增长与煤炭消费需求的关系进行分析。
China is a country that uses coal as its major energy source. Coal occupies an irreplaceable important position in the energy structure of our country. Proper and reasonable prediction of energy consumption can not only guide the allocation of resources and planning, but also provide valuable reference for future economic policy choices. Based on the basic analysis of China’s coal supply and demand, this paper will use Granger causality test to describe the relationship between coal consumption demand and economic growth, the use of cointegration theory and error correction model to establish the structural demand model of China’s coal consumption, China Economic growth and the relationship between coal consumption needs analysis.