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基于2004年中国冬小麦主产区黄淮海平原典型区内石家庄、衡水和邢台3市45个县(市)83个地面典型样区冬小麦地面实测作物单产数据、光合有效辐射、光合有效辐射分量以及相应的气象和土壤湿度数据,建立了简化的冬小麦光能转化有机物效率系数模型,基于冬小麦关键生育期(3—5月)累积作物生物量并采用地面实测的冬小麦收获指数加以校正,建立了作物生物量与作物经济产量间的定量关系,预测了2004年河北和山东平原区235个县(市)的冬小麦单产,并依据国家公布的2004年各县冬小麦统计单产验证了估产的精度.结果表明:该模型预测的2004年研究区冬小麦单产的均方根误差(RMSE)为238.5kghm-2,平均相对误差为4.28%,达到了大范围估产的精度要求,证明利用以遥感数据估算作物生物量进而预测冬小麦单产的方法是可行的.
Based on the measured data of winter wheat ground crop yield, photosynthetically active radiation, photosynthetically active radiation, and corresponding radiation components of 83 ground typical samples from 45 counties (cities) of Shijiazhuang, Hengshui and Xingtai in 2004 in the typical Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the main winter wheat producing area of China, , A simplified model of efficiency coefficient of light-energy conversion of organic matter in winter wheat was established. Based on the accumulated crop biomass during the critical growth period of winter wheat (March-May) and the ground-based winter wheat harvest index, the crop biomass And forecast the yield of winter wheat in 235 counties (cities) in Hebei and Shandong Plain in 2004 and verify the accuracy of yield estimation according to the statistical yield of winter wheat in each counties in 2004. The results show that: The model predicted that the RMSE of winter wheat yield in the study area in 2004 was 238.5 kghm-2 with an average relative error of 4.28%, which met the precision requirements of a large-scale yield estimation. It was proved that using the remote sensing data to estimate the crop biomass It is feasible to predict the yield of winter wheat.