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2012年下半年以来,化工板块上市公司收入同比增速呈先升后降的局面,其他经营指标同样显示,化工行业整体经营仍处下行周期。行业去产能化之路依然漫长,大宗同质化产品价格上涨受制于产能过剩,但客观上对于偏下游行业较为有利,子行业运行将呈现较大差异,需要自下而上进行筛选。立足2013年下半年的视角,笔者认为在行业去产能化阶段延续的背景下,寻找转型期的“向上”子行业将是投资主线,农药、染料、MDI、功能薄膜、电子材料、胶粘剂等将是重点关注领域。
Since the second half of 2012, the revenue growth of listed companies in the chemical sector has been rising first and then decreasing. Other business indicators also show that the overall operation of the chemical industry is still in a downward cycle. The road to capacity-building in the industry is still long. The price hike of bulk homogeneous products is subject to overcapacity. However, it is objectively favorable to downstream industries and sub-sectors are going to be greatly different in operation. They need to be selected from the bottom up. Based on the perspective of the second half of 2013, I believe that looking forward to the sub-sector of “transition” will be the main line of investment for pesticides, dyes, MDIs, functional thin films, electronic materials and adhesives in the context of the continuation of the industry’s capacity-building phase. Etc. will be the key areas of focus.