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运用恒定市场份额模型从总体和分类2个层面对河北省农产品出口波动的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:2008年和2009年农产品出口竞争力的提高成为河北省农产品出口增长的主要因素;2010—2014年世界市场农产品进口需求成为拉动河北省农产品出口增长的主要因素;河北省出口农产品结构的变化基本符合世界农产品进口需求结构的变化,但对河北省农产品出口增长的推动作用有限。
The paper uses the constant market share model to analyze the influencing factors of the export fluctuation of agricultural products in Hebei Province from two aspects of overall and classification. The results show that the increase of export competitiveness of agricultural products in 2008 and 2009 has become the main factor for the increase of export of agricultural products in Hebei Province. The import demand of agricultural products in the world market in 2010-2014 has become the main factor driving the export growth of agricultural products in Hebei Province. The export structure of agricultural products in Hebei Province The changes are basically in line with the changes in the structure of import demand for world agricultural products, but their contribution to the growth of export of agricultural products in Hebei Province is limited.