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湖北省是我国大米主要产地之一,也是我国重要的大米出口省份,但进入21世纪以来,湖北省大米出口量呈下降趋势。运用1999年~2014年的相关数据和计量方法,实证检验了人民币汇率、湖北省居民消费水平、大米价格对湖北省大米出口的影响,发现人民币汇率、居民消费水平均对湖北省大米出口存在负向影响,人民币汇率是大米出口变化的主要原因,而居民消费水平则不是主要原因,大米价格是大米出口变化的显著原因,且对大米出口存在正向影响,但影响不显著。为此,提出应从稳定人民币汇率、提高大米品质、促进大米产品多元化等三个方面来改善大米出口贸易。
Hubei Province is one of the major rice producing areas in China and an important exporter of rice in China. However, since the beginning of the 21st century, the export volume of rice in Hubei has shown a downward trend. Using the relevant data and measurement methods from 1999 to 2014, the impact of RMB exchange rate, household consumption level in Hubei Province, and rice price on rice exports in Hubei Province was empirically tested. It was found that the exchange rate of RMB and the level of household consumption were negative for the rice export of Hubei Province. Affected, the RMB exchange rate is the main reason for the changes in rice exports, while the level of household consumption is not the main reason. The rice price is a significant cause of the changes in rice exports, and there is a positive impact on rice exports, but the impact is not significant. Therefore, it is proposed that the export trade of rice should be improved in three aspects: stabilizing the RMB exchange rate, improving the quality of rice, and promoting the diversification of rice products.