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自西周以来,中原王朝与北方游牧民族的冲突不断,势力此消彼长。在最糟糕的情况下,中原王朝(西周、后唐、后晋、西晋、北宋、南宋、明)几度沦丧于“夷狄”。这究竟是历史的偶然,还是有共同的规律可循?根据王朝周期假说,越在王朝的后期,统治阶级越腐败,而政治军事实力越下降。因此,中原王朝建立的时间越早于周边王朝,则中原王朝面临的威胁越大,越可能被征服。本文使用秦朝以来的历史数据,通过Probit回归证明了这一点。其他控制变量,比如历史气候(以旱灾比例与黄河决堤为代理变量)以及长城的保护作用,都在统计上不显著。
Since the Western Zhou Dynasty, the clashes between the Central Plains Dynasty and the nomadic northern nations have been in constant conflict. In the worst case, the Central Plains dynasty (Western Zhou, post-Tang, post-Jin, Western Jin, Northern Song, Southern Song, Ming) suffered several times in the “barbarians.” Is this a historical accident or a common law? According to the dynastic cycle hypothesis, the later the dynasty, the more corrupt the ruling class, the more the political and military power declined. Therefore, the earlier the establishment of the Central Plains dynasty than the surrounding dynasties, the more threatened the Central Plains Dynasty, the more likely to be conquered. This article uses the historical data since Qin Dynasty, Probit regression proved this point. Other control variables, such as historical climate (the proportion of droughts and the Yellow River embankment as the proxy variable), and the protection of the Great Wall are all statistically insignificant.