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对中国人来说,未来几年,最重要的不是赚钱,而是守住风险门户。这两年作公开演讲时,笔者被问到最多的问题是,“我们手头那点钱,该怎么办才好”。在笔者看来,目前中国的资金投资环境并不理想。银行的储蓄利率被人为地压低,资金存入银行只能被通胀吞噬价值。理财产品的回报好过定期存款,可是理财产品(尤其是高收益产品)的隐含风险,其实比想像得大。股票市场连跌数年之后,一些股票的估值有一定吸引力,但是排山倒海的新股和大小非套现,令基本面因素迷失。
For the Chinese, the most important thing in the coming years is not to make money, but to hold the door to risk. When I gave a public speech in these two years, the most frequently asked question was: “What should we do if we have the money at hand?” In my opinion, China’s current capital investment environment is not ideal. Bank savings rate is artificially depressed, the funds deposited in banks can only swallow the value of inflation. The return on financial products is better than on fixed deposits, but the hidden risks of wealth management products (especially high-yielding products) are actually bigger than imagined. A few years after the stock market has been declining or declining, the valuations of some stocks have some appeal. However, the overhangs of new stocks and the size of non-cash stocks have lost their fundamentals.