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2011年10月天然橡胶市场走势总体呈N型宽幅震荡格局,而且沪胶指数波动幅度大于日胶指数,内外市场重心逐步下移。10月沪胶指数跌幅2.14%,日胶指数跌幅1.56%。11月,市场影响因素依旧呈多空交织的局面,因欧洲债务振救协议的达成及国内宏观政策预调微调的预期,宏观面的压力会有所减弱;基本面的压力有所增大:国内外天然橡胶库存量增长较快,对市场的压力略微显现;泰国洪灾对日本汽车生产的影响可能还将持续1个月;国内部分汽车厂商亏损可能导致2011年第4季度国内汽车产销量难超预期;合成橡胶价格持续回落对天然橡胶价格也将形成一定拖累。预计沪胶市场走势延续10月在底部箱体运行的概率较大,沪胶指数波动区间为25000～29000元。
In October 2011, the trend of natural rubber market showed a general pattern of N-type wide shocks. Moreover, the fluctuation of Hujiao Index was greater than the daily plastic index, and the internal and external market centers gradually decreased. October Hujiao index fell 2.14%, Japan plastic index fell 1.56%. In November, the factors influencing the market are still intertwined. As the settlement of the European debt rescue agreement and the expected fine-tuning of domestic macroeconomic policies, the pressure on the macro side will be weakened; the pressure on the fundamentals has increased: Domestic and international natural rubber inventories increased rapidly, the pressure on the market a slight show; Thailand floods on Japan’s auto production may affect the impact of 1 month; some domestic car manufacturers may result in losses in the fourth quarter of 2011, domestic car production and sales is difficult Expected than expected; synthetic rubber prices continued to fall on the price of natural rubber will also be dragged down. Hujiao is expected to continue the trend of the market in October at the bottom of the greater probability of running the box, Hujiao index range of 25,000 to 29,000 yuan.