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针对传统计划评审技术(Program Evaluation and Review Technique,PERT)在计算完工概率时假设条件的局限性(假设条件与工程实际存在偏差,导致完工概率偏大),提出了基于贝叶斯网络的施工进度完工概率分析方法.首先,分析了贝叶斯网络与进度计划网络之间的相似性,将两者结合起来构建了贝叶斯进度网络;在此基础上,综合考虑贝叶斯网络在节点取值及概率计算方面的优越性,并结合工程项目的不确定性及复杂性特点,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的施工进度完工概率分析模型.最后,将该模型应用于具体工程进行实例分析,验证了模型的可行性与有效性.研究结果表明:基于贝叶斯网络的进度完工概率模型充分考虑了工程施工中的风险因素,其结果能更客观地反映工程实际,可为工程项目决策者提供可靠的依据.
In view of the limitation of the assumption of the PERT when the completion probability is calculated (the assumption that the condition deviates from the actual project), the construction progress based on the Bayesian network is proposed Completion probability analysis method.Firstly, the similarity between Bayesian network and schedule network is analyzed, the Bayesian network is constructed by combining the two. On this basis, Value and probability calculation, and combined with the uncertainty and complexity characteristics of the project, the completion probability analysis model of construction progress based on Bayesian network is established.Finally, the model is applied to specific projects for instance analysis, The feasibility and the validity of the model are verified.The results show that the Bayesian network based on the completion probability model takes full account of the risk factors in the project construction and the results can more objectively reflect the actual project, Provide a reliable basis.