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为更好地预防机械原因飞行事故,提高安全管理和决策的水平,提出机械原因飞行事故诱因的分析与预测方法。首先借鉴“瑞士奶酪”模型的思想,建立了机械原因飞行事故诱因分析分类体系;而后构建了事故的二进制矩阵,通过进行比例矩阵分析和单一聚类分析来辨识重要的单诱因、两两诱因组合和事故主要诱发模式;最后采用Bootstrap方法对其进行预测。结果表明:所提出的方法能够辨识出机械原因飞行事故中的重要单诱因、两两诱因组合和主要诱发模式,并对其做出较为准确的预测,进而对制订事故防控预案,预防此类事故的发生具有重要意义。
In order to better prevent flight accidents caused by mechanical reasons and improve the level of safety management and decision-making, this paper proposes the analysis and prediction methods of the causes of flight accidents caused by mechanical reasons. First of all, we draw lessons from the idea of “Swiss Cheese” model to establish a classification system of causes of flight accidents caused by mechanical reasons. Then we construct a binary matrix of accidents and identify important single inducement by analyzing the proportion matrix and single cluster analysis. Incentive combination and accident predominant mode; Finally, it is predicted by Bootstrap method. The results show that the proposed method can identify the important single inducement, the combination of two inducement and the main inducement mode in the flight accident of mechanical reasons and make a more accurate prediction of the accident. In order to prevent accidents The occurrence of accidents is of great significance.