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由于常规发展模型——分层模型和潜在发展模型无法处理总体发展轨迹的异质性,使用中国高龄老人健康长寿追踪调查前四轮的数据,本研究应用组基发展建模在考虑异质轨迹类型的情况下来对高龄老人残障发展轨迹进行分析。结果表明,可以合理地将高龄老人的残障发展轨迹区分为三个明显异质的子类型——“身体健全型”、“低起点快速发展型”和“高起点平稳发展型”。本研究还发现,基线调查时的年龄、性别、民族和60岁之前的职业等人口、经济因素都会显著地影响高龄老人在残障发展轨迹类型上的归属。
Due to the fact that the conventional development model-stratification model and potential development model can not deal with the heterogeneity of the overall development trajectory, using the data of the first four rounds of health and longevity follow-up survey of Chinese elderly people, this study applied group-based development modeling to consider heterogeneous trajectories Type of situation to analyze the path of the elderly with disabilities development. The results show that it is reasonable to divide the path of disability development of the elderly people into three distinctly heterogeneous subtypes - “sound body type”, “rapid development type with low starting point” and “stable development type with high starting point” ". The study also found that economic factors, such as age, gender, ethnicity and occupation before the age of 60 at the baseline survey, significantly affect the veracity of elderly people’s patterns of disability development.