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本文将政府双重理性因素和巴罗内生财政纳入模型,在满足政府个人效用最大和政府投资产出最高的前提下,推理公众效用和企业产出最大化条件约束的最优税率和最优政府支出值,进而讨论长期稳态时政府消费性支出与生产性支出的比值关系。利用中国1980～2010年的数据进行数值模拟和实证分析,结论显示:近年来我国税收相对于经济增长过快,偏离了长期稳态最优,税负较重。税负偏离稳态路径的原因在于,财政分权下中央、地方财政政策目标冲突,地方财政决算收入比重逐渐降低,且迫于地方经济发展压力和财政决算内收入约束,地方政府不得不寻求决算外收入以弥补财政支出缺口。为了更好地实现经济的持续平稳运行,中央政府应制定与其政策目标激励相容的制度,使地方政府财政政策与中央政策保持一致。同时,适当调整税收结构、降低税负,减少政府的营利性投资支出,以有限的财政收入保障纯公共物品供给。
In this paper, the dual rationality of government and Baroness endogenous financial into the model, under the premise of meeting the highest personal utility and the highest government investment output, the optimal tax rate and optimal government constrained by public utility and enterprise output maximization Expenditure, and then discuss the long-term steady state government spending and the ratio of productive expenditure. The data from 1980 to 2010 in China are used for numerical simulation and empirical analysis. The conclusion shows that in recent years, tax revenue in China has been excessively fast relative to economic growth, deviating from the long-term steady state optimality and having a heavy tax burden. The reason why the tax burden deviates from the steady state path lies in the conflict between the goal of central and local fiscal policies under the fiscal decentralization, the gradual reduction of the proportion of revenue from the final accounts of local governments, and the pressure of local economic development and the restriction of revenue within the financial final accounts. Local governments have to seek final accounts External income to make up for the fiscal expenditure gap. In order to achieve a more sustainable and stable economy, the central government should formulate a system that is compatible with its policy goals and encourage fiscal policy of local governments to be consistent with central government. At the same time, we should appropriately adjust the tax structure, reduce the tax burden, reduce the government’s profit-making investment expenditures, and ensure the supply of pure public goods with limited financial revenues.