江苏省是全国出口大省,而出口是经济增长的重要动力,出口增速的变化备受关注。2008年伊始,江苏省出口增速虽然没有出现大幅下降,但从第一季度的数据看,累计增长19.6%,大大低于2007年同期的32.5%,进口也略低于2007年同期水平。其中,对美国出口已经连续3个月同比负增长。如果观察其周期趋势,运用“谷-谷”分类法就会发现,亚洲金融危机以来,江苏省出口出 Jiangsu is a big export nation, and exports are an important driving force for economic growth. The changes in export growth have drawn much attention. At the beginning of 2008, although the export growth rate of Jiangsu Province did not drop sharply, from the data of the first quarter, the cumulative growth rate was 19.6%, significantly lower than the 32.5% in the same period of 2007, and the import level was slightly lower than the same period in 2007. Among them, exports to the United States have been negative growth year-on-year for three consecutive months. If you look at the cyclical trend, using the “Valley - Valley” classification will find that since the Asian financial crisis, Jiangsu Province exported