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多哈贸易自由化对中国农业的影响一直存在很大争论。与以往的研究不同,本文应用一般均衡模型GTAP与局部均衡模型CAPSIM对接的方法测算新一轮多哈贸易自由化对中国农业的影响。研究显示,贸易自由化总体上对中国经济有正面的影响,只不过影响幅度很小,但农业部门会在多哈自由化中享受相对较大的贸易优势;从分产品的贸易和生产来看,粮食作物、果蔬等产品有正的影响,而对畜产品和食糖会有负的影响;虽然贸易自由化对中国农民收入来说只有很小的正面影响,但这种影响在不同收入组之间差别很大,其中高收入组农民要比低收入组农民受益更多,贸易自由化在一定程度上会使农民的贫富差距拉大。
The impact of Doha’s trade liberalization on China’s agriculture has been much debated. Different from previous researches, we apply the method of general equilibrium model GTAP and partial equilibrium model CAPSIM to measure the impact of the new round of Doha trade liberalization on China’s agriculture. Studies have shown that trade liberalization generally has a positive impact on the Chinese economy but with only modest effects, but the agricultural sector will enjoy comparatively greater trade advantages in Doha’s liberalization. From the perspective of trade and production of products, Positive impacts on food crops, fruits and vegetables and other products have a negative impact on livestock products and sugar. Although trade liberalization has only a small positive impact on Chinese farmers’ income, this effect is between different income groups There are great differences among them. Among them, high-income group farmers benefit more than low-income group farmers. Trade liberalization will to a certain extent make the gap between rich and poor farmers widen.