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依据一个经济时期内能源需求、能源供应和政府调控之间相互依存、相互制约的演化关系为背景建立了一个新的能源供需模型.模型中引入市场自身调节的闽值,政府调控的阈值,政府调控对能源需求和能源供应的影响系数等参数,通过参数的调整,分析了政府调控在能源供需中的作用.通过平衡点稳定性、系统的耗散性、Lyapunov指数谱等的分析,研究了系统的基本动力学行为,利用数值模拟的方法给出了系统的动力演化行为;给出了模型中参数估计的方式,对模型所反映的现实意义进行了解释,给出了数值模拟结果,验证了理论分析的正确性.
A new energy supply and demand model was established based on the evolutionary relationship between energy demand, energy supply, and government regulation during an economic period. This model introduces the market’s self-adjusted threshold, government regulation threshold, and government By adjusting the parameters such as the impact factors on energy demand and energy supply, and by adjusting the parameters, the role of government regulation in energy supply and demand is analyzed. Through the analysis of stability point stability, system dissipativeness, Lyapunov exponent spectrum, etc. The basic dynamics of the system, the use of numerical simulation methods to give the dynamic evolution of the system behavior; given the parameters of the model estimation method, the model reflects the actual significance of interpretation, given the numerical simulation results, verification The correctness of theoretical analysis.