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20世纪90年代中后期北大西洋涛动(NAO)年代际变率的发现与北极涛动(AO)概念的提出,引发了持续至今的古AO/NAO研究热潮。从观测和模拟两方面对多时间尺度的古AO/NAO研究进展做了系统的回顾与总结,包括近千年AO/NAO序列的重建,全新世AO/NAO变化趋势的争议,末次冰盛期AO/NAO振幅的减弱,末次间冰期AO/NAO的异常偏正,以及AO/NAO的气候平均态与振幅2个关键概念的区分。其中对不同时段AO/NAO的变化机理做了简要概括与讨论。在此基础上,建议在今后的古AO/NAO研究中,除了寻找时间更长、与AO/NAO显著相关的代用资料外,还要着力加强气候模拟方面的工作,特别是长时间瞬变模拟及对关键外强迫因子开展敏感性试验。只有将观测与数值模拟相结合,才可进一步增进对AO/NAO与气候背景间动力机制的理解。在过去20年间,气候学界对AO/NAO的广泛研究,对于理解全球变暖背景下AO/NAO的变化过程、并提高其可预报性都具有重要意义。
The discovery of the interdecadal variability of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the concept of Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the mid-to-late 1990s led to an upsurge of research on the past AO / NAOs. This paper reviews and summarizes the progress of the research on ancient AO / NAO with multi-time scales systematically from two aspects of observation and simulation. It includes the reconstruction of AO / NAO sequences in the past millenium, the controversy of the trend of Holocene AO / NAO, the last ice age AO / NAO amplitude weakening, the anomalous AO / NAO anomalies in the last interglacial and the distinction between the two key concepts of AO / NAO climate mean and amplitude. Among them, the changing mechanism of AO / NAO in different periods is briefly summarized and discussed. Based on this, it is suggested that in the future research of ancient AO / NAO, in addition to looking for the surrogate data which has a longer time and is significantly related to AO / NAO, it is suggested that efforts should be made to strengthen the work on climate simulation, especially the long-term transient simulation And conduct tests of sensitivity to key extra-compulsive factors. Only by combining observations with numerical simulations can we further improve our understanding of the dynamical mechanisms between AO / NAO and climate backgrounds. In the past 20 years, extensive research on AO / NAO by climatologists has been of great significance for understanding the process of AO / NAO changes in the context of global warming and improving its predictability.