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采用EIA发布的美国页岩气开采数据,基于投资与钻井数的关系,用钻井数代替投资量,运用向量自回归(VAR)模型,对页岩气、常规天然气的“投资-产量”关系进行实证研究,对比分析页岩气与常规天然气投资对产量的驱动差异。以水平井数近似代替页岩气投资量,以直井数作为常规天然气的钻井投资量。结果表明,现阶段页岩气投资对产量的驱动作用要强于常规天然气,增加页岩气的钻井投资量对产量的提高有较为明显的拉动作用,而常规天然气增加钻井投资量却无法促进产量的提高。分析其原因,一是所处的开发阶段不同,二是单井生命周期不同。虽然中国目前在页岩气领域与美国差距较大,但是技术进步和投入增加有助于消除这种差距,美国的一些成功经验也可以运用到中国页岩气的商业化开采过程中。建议我国要加大对页岩气领域的科研投入,积极落实“引进来”战略,将国外的先进技术引入到我国。将更多的民营企业作为新的投资主体引入到页岩气产业中,从基础设施、法律制度、金融服务三个方面共同构建有利于页岩气开发的投资环境,同时要加快我国天然气定价机制改革。
Using shale gas production data from the United States as published by the EIA, based on the relationship between investment and drilling numbers, we use the drilling number instead of the investment volume and use the vector autoregression (VAR) model to calculate the “investment-production volume” of shale gas and conventional natural gas Relationship between the empirical study, comparative analysis of shale gas and conventional natural gas investment on the output-driven difference. The approximate number of horizontal wells instead of shale gas investment, the number of vertical wells as conventional gas drilling investment. The results show that the investment of shale gas at this stage is more effective than conventional natural gas. The increase of drilling investment of shale gas has a significant pulling effect on the increase of output, but the conventional natural gas increases the investment of drilling but can not promote the output improve. Analysis of the reasons, one is in different stages of development, and second, single-well life cycle is different. Although China currently has a big gap with the United States in the area of shale gas, technological progress and increased investment can help to eliminate this gap. Some successful U.S. experience can also be applied to the commercial exploitation of shale gas in China. It is suggested that China should increase investment in scientific research in the field of shale gas and actively implement the strategy of “bringing in” to introduce advanced foreign technologies into our country. Introducing more privately owned enterprises into the shale gas industry as new investment entities, building an investment environment conducive to the development of shale gas from the aspects of infrastructure, legal system and financial services, and at the same time, accelerating the pricing mechanism of natural gas in China reform.