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目的运用Serfling回归模型评估深圳市2013-2015年深圳市因流感引起的死亡负担,为了解深圳市流感的流行程度和制定疫苗接种策略提供参考依据。方法收集深圳市2013-2015年根本死因为全死因(allcause,AC)、呼吸和循环系统疾病(respiratory and circulatory disease,R&C)、流感和肺炎(pneumonia and influenza,P&I)三类死亡数据,并划分全年龄组、<65岁组和≥65岁组,分别拟合Serfling回归模型,估计深圳市2013-2015年的超额死亡数和超额死亡率。结果 2013-2015年用AC估计的深圳市年平均流感超额死亡数为652.80人,年均超额死亡率为6.11/10万。用R&C估计的深圳市年平均流感超额死亡数为449.78人,年均超额死亡率为4.21/10万。用P&I估计的深圳市年平均流感超额死亡数为44.94人,年均超额死亡率为0.42/10万。结论 Serfling回归模型显示老年人是流感超额死亡发生的高危人群,尤其是已患有呼吸和循环系统疾病的人群。
Objective To evaluate the flu death toll caused by influenza in Shenzhen City in 2013-2015 by using Serfling regression model and provide a reference for understanding the prevalence of influenza and developing vaccination strategies in Shenzhen. Methods The data of all-cause death (AC), respiratory and circulatory diseases (R & C), pneumonia and influenza (P & I) in Shenzhen were collected from 2013 to 2015 in Shenzhen City, All age groups, <65-year-old group and> 65-year-old group, were fitted Serfling regression model to estimate the number of excess deaths in 2013-2015 and excess mortality in Shenzhen. Results The annual average number of influenza deaths in Shenzhen estimated by AC in 2013-2015 was 652.80 and the annual excess mortality rate was 6.11 / 100,000. The annual average influenza death toll in Shenzhen estimated by R & C was 449.78, with an annual excess mortality rate of 4.21 / 100,000. Estimated by P & I, the annual average number of influenza deaths in Shenzhen was 44.94, with an annual excess mortality rate of 0.42 / 100,000. Conclusions The Serfling regression model shows that the elderly are at high risk of influenza deaths, especially those already suffering from respiratory and circulatory diseases.