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为把握新乡市农村初级卫生保健实现程度,我们从不同经济水平,不同地理方位、不同类型的地区中选择代表性较好的长垣、原阳、获加和新乡县为预测样本。就卫生部规定的十三项指标及相关指标进行预测。样本县占新乡市辖县总数的50％。预测结果大体可代表全市农村水平。预测所需资料来源为样本县卫生局及当地计经、统计、计生等部门,分别就人口,经济、卫生等指标收集1949—1988年四十年实际数据。本研究全部数据处理在微型计算机上实现。预测方法使用趋势外推、时间回归、多元回归、平均增长速度等方法。将不同方法所得预测值逐一比较,并进行显著性检验后,择其预报精度高者为该指标预测结果。
In order to grasp the level of primary health care in rural areas of Xinxiang City, we selected the Changshu, Yuanyang, and Jiahe Xinxiang counties with better representativeness from different economic levels, different geographic locations, and different types of regions as prediction samples. Make predictions on the thirteen indicators set by the Ministry of Health and related indicators. Sample counties account for 50% of the total number of counties in Xinxiang. The forecast results can generally represent the level of the city’s rural areas. The source of data needed for forecasting is the sample county health bureau and the local counting, statistics, and family planning departments. The actual data for 1949-1988 are collected for the population, economy, and health indicators. All data processing in this study was implemented on a microcomputer. Forecasting methods use trend extrapolation, time regression, multiple regression, and average growth rate. The predicted values obtained by different methods were compared one by one, and after significant tests were performed, those with higher forecast accuracy were selected as the forecast results of the indicators.