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针对2013年7月22日甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震,本文用三性法、静中动两种方法,对其前兆显现、震前预测过程进行了回顾和分析。回顾表明,在2012年时,对甘肃东南部历史上8级、7级以及6级三个震级档的地震进行三性法分析后,预测在2013-2014年时间段内,天水地区可能有6级地震发生。圈定的地点是在天水为中心150km的范围内。另外,注意到1987年1月8日迭部5.8级地震与“静中动地震”指标所要求与定义的震级和年份相近,因而以此地震作为“准静中动”地震判断地区,与该区域三性法所做的时间预测相配合,预测在1987年1月8日迭部5.8级地震周围大约150km的范围之内,将也会在2012年以及2013、2014年发生一个6至7级的地震。而实际发生的岷县漳县地震震中距离天水123.8km,距离迭部112.1km,即该地震发生在预测的范围内。由于地震预测的复杂性,当用三性法以及静中动指标对全国和甘肃省的地震情况分析后表明,在别的地区还有更为显著的发震指标显现,出于危险区不能划得太多的限制,因而把针对甘肃东南部的预测列为第二个发震可能性的方案之中,遂在2012年只得出研究性的预测结果,没有提出预测意见。甘肃岷县漳县的MS6.6地震实际发生验证,甘肃省首发的强震不是在一个最有可能的静中动指标所指明的地点之中,却在一个“准静中动地震”的地点发生。但该地震对三性法的震后验证表明,其方法还是有前兆性指标显示的。该次地震的发生,表明“准静中动指标”也是值得重视的预测指标。研究表明,三性法相比较常用的中期尺度的预测方法,它能在存在强震背景的情况下,在趋势上指出一个特定的时间段,这是其独特的地方,与多种方法结合后,将会进一步提高强震预测的效能。
In view of the MS6.6 earthquake in Zhang County, Min County, Gansu Province, July 22, 2013, this paper reviews and analyzes the precursory prediction and the prediction process before and after the earthquake by using the three methods, static and dynamic methods. The review shows that after the three-factor analysis of the earthquakes of the 8th, 7th and 6th magnitude records in the southeastern Gansu province in the history of 2012, it is predicted that during the 2013-2014 time period there may be 6 Earthquake occurred. The delineated location is within 150km of Tianshui. In addition, it is noted that the magnitude 5.8 of the M8.8 Diego Diego Earthquake on January 8, 1987 was similar to the magnitude and year required by the definition of the “moving Earthquake” indicator, and therefore the earthquake was used as the “quasi-static” earthquake prediction Region, in line with the temporal prediction made by the Tripartite Law of the region, it is predicted that within a range of about 150 km around the Diego 5.8 M8. 8 earthquake on January 8, 1987, one more will occur in 2012 and in 2013 and 2014 6 to 7 earthquakes. However, the actual epicenter of the Zhangxian County earthquake in Min County was 123.8km away from Tianshui and 112.1km away from Diego Diego, that is, the earthquake occurred in the predicted range. Due to the complexity of the earthquake prediction, the analysis of the seismological situation of the whole country and Gansu Province by using the triple method and the static indicator shows that there are more obvious indicators of seismogenic activity in other areas and can not be drawn from the danger zone Too many restrictions, and therefore the forecast for the southeastern Gansu Province as the second possibility of seismogenic programs, then in 2012 only to draw the predictive results of the study, did not put forward predictions. The MS6.6 earthquake in Zhang County, Min County, Gansu Province actually verified that the first strong earthquake in Gansu Province was not within the location indicated by one of the most likely static and dynamic indicators but was in a “quasi-static earthquake” Place of occurrence. However, the post-earthquake verification of the three-way method by the earthquake shows that the method is still shown by the precursory indicators. The occurrence of this earthquake shows that the “quasi-static index” is also a worthy predictor. The research shows that compared with the commonly used medium-term prediction method, the tri-law method can point out a specific time period on the trend in the presence of a strong earthquake background, which is a unique place. Combined with a variety of methods, Will further improve the performance of strong earthquake prediction.