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海平面变化规律尤其是对海平面变化周期和上升趋势的研究,已成为国内外科学界研究的热点问题。使用1992—2009年海平面卫星测高仪数据资料,运用小波变换方法对中国东海海平面变化的周平均数据信号进行多尺度周期分析,并通过Winters指数平滑法对未来海平面变化进行预测,结果显示:①1992—2009年东海海平面呈现波动上升的趋势,年平均上升幅度约为0.39 cm/a;并呈现出2~3个月、12个月(1 a)、24个月(2 a)、36个月(3 a)、48个月(4 a)、55个月(4.6 a)等多尺度周期特征;②海平面变化去噪数据信号表现出比原始信号更加明显的波动上升趋势,相对应的每年海平面峰值(每年夏秋季节),海平面上升趋势更明显,上升幅度约为0.78 cm/a,为年平均海平面增幅的2倍;③2006年后,中国东海未来海平面将保持波动上升的趋势,年平均上升幅度为0.49 cm/a,预计到2015年,海平面将比2006年上升4~5 cm;到2030年,海平面将比2006年上升14~15 cm。
The research on sea level change, especially on sea level change cycle and upward trend, has become a hot issue in the field of scientific research at home and abroad. Using the sea-level satellite altimeter data from 1992 to 2009, the multi-scale periodic analysis of the weekly average sea level data of the East China Sea using the wavelet transform method is carried out. The Winters exponential smoothing method is used to predict the future sea level change. The results The results show that: ①The sea level of the East China Sea showed a fluctuating increase from 1992 to 2009, with an average annual increase of about 0.39 cm / a; and the average annual increase was about 2 to 3 months, 12 months (1 year), 24 months (2 years) , 36 months (3 a), 48 months (4 a), 55 months (4.6 a) and so on. (2) The sea level change de-noising data signal showed a more obvious fluctuation upward trend than the original signal, The corresponding annual sea level peak (annual summer and autumn seasons), the sea level upward trend is more obvious, the increase rate is about 0.78 cm / a, which is twice of the annual average sea level increase; ③The sea level in future in the East China Sea will be maintained after 2006 The annual average increase is 0.49 cm / a. It is estimated that the sea level will increase by 4 ~ 5 cm as compared with that of 2006 by 2015; and the sea level will increase by 14 ~ 15 cm by 2030.